Prediction Roma vs Bologna (March 19, 2026, 9:00 PM)
Match Analysis: Roma and Bologna Battle for the Quarter-Finals
The Stadio Olimpico is set for a high-stakes European night. The second leg of the Europa League Round of 16 between Roma and Bologna remains perfectly balanced after the 1-1 draw in the first leg at the Dall’Ara. For Gian Piero Gasperini’s Giallorossi, the goal is to reaffirm their special bond with this competition as they aim for their third quarter-final appearance in four years. However, Roma enters this clash following two consecutive league defeats, which have highlighted defensive vulnerabilities; the team has failed to keep a clean sheet in their last four matches. Additionally, key absences linger: Soulé and Dybala remain sidelined, while Celik is doubtful due to a physical issue.
On the other side, Vincenzo Italiano’s Bologna arrives in Rome with renewed confidence despite the difficult away setting. The “Rossoblù” have won four of their last five Serie A matches, showing significant growth in consistency. In the Europa League, the Emilian side is unbeaten in ten games and stands out as one of the most prolific teams in terms of offensive production. However, Italiano must cope without the suspended Juan Miranda and the injured Skorupski, with De Silvestri also highly unlikely to feature following a recent injury.
Technical Analysis and Tactical Outlook
The “Olimpico factor” could be decisive. At home, Roma has built its seasonal success with eleven victories so far. Furthermore, they have already defeated Bologna at home in the league this season, proving their ability to impose themselves in front of their fans.
Tactically, an intense but low-scoring affair is expected. Roma may prioritize a balanced approach to deny space to a Bologna side that thrives on offensive transitions. The absence of Skorupski is a major blow for the visitors in a “do-or-die” scenario, while Roma’s offensive absences might lead to a more cagey, tactically prudent game.
Software Data-Mining Statistics
Our analytical software confirms a slight edge for Roma in the main markets:
- 1X2 & Double Chance: The home win (1) is estimated at 47%, the draw (X) at 20%, and a Bologna away win (2) at 32%. The 12 Double Chance (no draw) is highly probable at 80%.
- Under/Over Markets: Data suggests a low-scoring match. Under 2.5 is estimated at 60.19%, while Under 3.5 reaches 77.21%.
- Goal/No Goal: There is a slight statistical preference for No Goal (52.9%) over Goal (47.1%).
- Team Multigol: Roma has a 70% probability of scoring between 1-3 goals, while Bologna hits a 90% probability in the same range.
- Intensity & Disciplinaries: Total shots are expected to be high (Over 25.5 at 80%), though shots on target may be limited (Under 8.5 at 75%). The match is expected to stay within disciplinary limits (Under 4.5 cards at 65%).
Tipster’s Verdict & Betting Odds
Overall, the Roma vs Bologna prediction favors the Giallorossi. Home advantage, recent European experience, and Bologna’s defensive absences point toward a home win.
- Primary Pick: We recommend the 1 (Home Win), which offers a solid technical foundation at attractive odds.
- High-Value Combo: For a more aggressive play, the 1 + No Goal combo aligns with both statistical projections and Roma’s recent home trend of winning with clean sheets.